Increase in unemployment predicted for 2009

By PRSD, on Tuesday, January 20, 2009

posted by Cptn

According to those sooth-sayers and star-gazers in the South West Observatory Intelligence Network, ‘the increase in unemployment and the downturn in the housing market across the region will be the hot topics for 2009.’ No shit, Sherlock.

Taking the figures for 2008, where unemployment in the region rose from 3.7 per cent to 4.2 per cent, affecting close to 16,000 people in the region, they reckon an additional 58,000 in the region could find themselves out of work in 2009/10.

“Coupled with this comes the end to the housing boom, which saw prices in the region peak in 2007 at levels some 214 per cent higher than in the previous decade,” they say. “According to the Halifax’s regional price index, South West house prices fell by 12.8 per cent between 2007 and 2008 – a rate slightly higher than the national average. As a result, negative equity now threatens increasing numbers of households.”

Martin Boddy, Chairman of the South West Observatory, took time away from the telescope to tell the PRSD: “Realistically, 2009 will be a hard year for many in the region. But we may not be hit as badly as other parts of the country. We do not expect unemployment in the South West, as a whole, to reach the national levels of up to 7.5 per cent, although some parts will be hard hit.”

For detailed analysis of the economic, social and environmental issues affecting the region, download a copy of the latest Barometer (warning: optimism can go down as well as up).

• How pessimistic do you feel for 2009? Get in touch.

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Doc

Official unemployment statistics are misleading.

Around 20% of working age adults are economically inactive. The non-counted include the involuntary early retired, students, those on disability related benefits, single parents, and those of us who just make do on a mosaic of part time work, debt and savings.Those counted as economically active - and by association well-off - include part-time workers, temporary workers and the self employed on very low incomes. (Note that we have effectively raised the school leaving age to 18, and for many people to 21). Often in Devon the employed are on incomes not far above benefit levels. I have a friend who was surprised to find that when he was made redundant his family's income increased quite substantially.

Therefore, we should be looking beyond the official statistics which are designed to give a false impression of people's financial status.

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