Could the Health Bill be David Cameron’s tuition fees moment?

Dogmatically insisting on contentious NHS reforms while ignoring opposition to the drastic changes could take the Teflon coating off David Cameron's premiership

By Luke Pollard, on Monday, February 20, 2012

Those opposed to the Health Bill have not been asked to a Downing Street health summit on the issues

Last week I wrote that the Government is haemorrhaging public support with their NHS reforms.

A week on and it seems clear that not only is the Government rattled when it comes to the NHS but that they’re also losing their focus and are making potentially damaging mistakes.

It is not necessary to rehearse again why the Government’s Health and Social Care Bill is a disaster for the NHS and patients. But it is worth looking at what has changed in the last week.

Firstly, over 150,000 people have now signed the online petition on the Downing Street website calling for the Government to drop the Bill. Unlike previous petitions that seem to lose steam once the magic 100,000 number has been reached this one seems to be gaining momentum. That’s worrying for those like Andrew Lansley MP, the beleaguered Health Secretary, who wants to keep his Bill on track as pressure is building not only about the Bill but his handling of the NHS in general.

Secondly, attempts to rally support for the Bill on behalf of David Cameron and his Downing Street policy wonks are proving shambolic.

The PM is hosting a health summit in Downing Street about the Government’s shambolic NHS reforms. The logic for such an event is obvious and the format tried and tested by this and previous governments. It goes something like this: bring critics and advocates together, allow people to let off steam, make some minor concessions to split the opposition and look conciliatory and responsive to concerns and then plough on towards Royal Assent. Summits are a simple political ploy and a great way of allowing the Prime Minister to looks statesmanlike and in control.

All great in theory, but this Government seems unable to get even the simplest political event right when it comes to the NHS. If you’re holding a summit, a genuine and well-intentioned debate, would you really exclude some of the biggest players? Would you, as Downing Street has done, refuse to invite the BMA and Royal Colleges opposed to the reforms? Number 10’s handling of this summit is a gift to those who oppose the Health and Social Care Bill and is helping illustrate just how rattled the Government is about the health reforms.

Whereas the Bill’s private sector healthcare backers are still unwavering in their support for the privatisation of the NHS, the public has turned against this Bill. And once lost, it will be almost impossible to restore public trust and support for Andrew Lansley’s plans.

Last week in this blog I urged David Cameron and Andrew Lansley to do the right thing and drop the Bill.

Their stubborn refusal to drop the Bill is not doing them any favours and if anything is galvanising opposition to their reforms. That should worry Tory strategists as voters who have lost faith in the Government’s handling of the NHS are more likely to question and oppose other policy areas too. Think about how opposition to NHS reform could easily map over to anger at Workfare reforms and a faltering economic recovery.

If I were in Tory HQ plotting how to achieve an outright majority in 2015 I would be asking myself if the Health Bill is worth the effort or is the Health Bill debacle causing lasting damage not only to Andrew Lansley, who is clearly for the chop sooner or later, but to the Prime Minister.

David Cameron has kept his Teflon coating since the Coalition came to power but his blind faith in his Health Bill may very well be his undoing. Faith in Nick Clegg has already crumbled – Tory plans for the next election hinge on that not happening to Mr Cameron. With continuing bad news we should ask ourselves whether the NHS could be David Cameron’s undoing just as tuition fees were for Nick Clegg?

Let’s keep up the pressure on the Government to drop the Bill. If you have not signed the petition yet sign here. http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/22670